Cartographical analysis of African swine fever outbreaks in the territory of the Russian Federation and computer modeling of the basic reproduction ratio

摘要: African swine fever (ASF), have been introduced into the Russian Federation from Transcaucasia countries, has spread widely across territory of southern region Russia since 2008. In this work we present an analysis spatial and temporal disease, determine risk factors by means GIS tools model dynamics epidemic process both within infected premises (farms) at between-farm level to estimate basic reproduction ratio R(0). The allowed us make a conclusion about anthropogenic nature for disease spread. major significant identified were: density road network, domestic population water bodies in study area. was estimated range 2 3 8 11 farms. These initial studies ASF provide information on which based control prevention programs.