Benefits of invasion prevention: Effect of time lags, spread rates, and damage persistence

摘要: article i nfo Quantifying economic damagescaused by invasive species is crucial for cost-benefit analyses of biosecurity mea- sures. Most studies focus on short-term damage estimates, but evaluating exclusion or prevention measures re- quires estimates total anticipated damages from the time establishment onward. The magnitude such critically depends timing relative to a species' arrival because costs are discounted back establishment. Using theoretical simulations, we illustrate how (ceteris paribus) long- term damages, and hence benefits efforts, greater that a) have short lags be- tween introduction spread between at location initiation b) cause larger, short-lived (as opposed smaller, persistent damages), c) faster earlier. We empirically estimate long-term impacts three forest pests currently invading North America — gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar), hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae), emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) discuss persistence, spread, rates affect damages. Many temporal characteristics can be predicted new invaders should considered in risk anal- yses evaluations quarantine eradication programs.