A simulation model for optimizing the concession period of public-private partnerships schemes

摘要: Abstract Public–private partnerships (PPP) are becoming an increasingly popular option of project delivery. Under the concession-based PPP arrangement, private partner is responsible for funding scheme, while their capital investment will be recovered through operation revenue over concession period. Therefore, calculating appropriate return period becomes a very important aspect that influences success project, particularly so as concessionaire may tempted to increase toll/tariff should fall short expected. However, due difficulties in estimating long-term uncertainties and wider-risk profiles at tendering stage, government would conduct traditional net present value payback analyses determine In this paper, simulation model which aims assist public optimal proposed. A hypothetical example worked illustrate concept model. The results show risks uncertainties, such change inflation rate, traffic flow cost, could influence decision on With help model, impact risk can taken into account when establishing ideal