Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change

摘要: Two of the principal responses species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading a global reshuffling geographic distribution species. Such may cause disappear from areas they currently occupy and, given right conditions, colonize new sites. This could affect ability site networks (such as protected areas) conserve Identifying sites that will continue provide suitable conditions for focal under future scenarios are likely become unsuitable is important effective conservation planning. Here we explore impacts on terrestrial bird concern Neotropics, consequences network Important Bird Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified them. We modelled distributions 3,798 across Caribbean Central South America, accounting species-specific biological traits (natal dispersal generation length), assess occurrences IBA different scenarios. Based projected compositions, identify potential management strategies network. project substantial individual network, resulting very heterogenous IBAs. Mean turnover was 17% by 2050. Nonetheless, medium-warming scenario, 73% 939 which IBAs identified, more than half occur were remain climatically suitable, 90% at least quarter suitable. These results suggest robust change. Nevertheless, 7% no Our highlight importance network-wide perspective when taking decisions