Vulnerability to expected poverty in Afghanistan 1

摘要: This paper measures vulnerability to expected poverty (VEP) an ex-anti measure of well-being for Afghanistan using a single cross-section data. We VEP household consumption expenditure during 2007/08 predict probability future being lower than specific threshold. Our results show that 66 per cent Afghan population is vulnerable in near compared 42 the who currently live under line. and vary across geography seasons interestingly, areas most exposed war have lowest levels poverty. The further indicate head education, male, housing condition, ownership irrigated agriculture land positive effect on consumption. In contrast, fact rural or nomadic proportion family members 15 over 50 years age negative