Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey

摘要: Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions inflation. This paper investigates predictive performance of for real output growth Turkey. We find (i) forecasting ability individual is unstable; but (ii) a suitable combination these unstable forecasts yields forecast reliably outperforms generated by an autoregressive model. then propose two-stage obtained taking median top five performing forecasts. improves on benchmarks based all