Forecasting the Effects of Health Reform on US Physician Workforce Requirement

摘要: This article provides an estimate of the effects health reform on US physician workforce requirement. Its basic methodology is to extrapolate current patterns staffing within managed care plans reshaped system year 2000. In this analysis it assumed that 40% 65% Americans will be receiving from integrated networks in near future, and all citizens covered by some type insurance. On basis these assumptions, forecasts 2000, (1) there overall surplus about 165000 patient physicians; (2) requirement supply primary physicians relative balance; (3) specialists outstrip more than 60%. summation, appears national reform—based largely expansion networks—will have significant impact workforce. Concerns been raised others reform's shift toward preventive stymied availability. study underscores concern degree. However, evidence presented herein suggests issue not so much a provider shortage as specialty surplus. (JAMA. 1994;272:222-230)