Models, Muddles and Megapolicies: The IIASA Energy Study as an Example of Science for Public Policy

摘要: This paper is offered as a contribution to general methodological reflection within applied systems analysis. It about several linked questions: (i) the nature of intrinsic structural bias in very activity formal modeling; (ii) pitfalls involved attempting be objective by artificially abstracting physical and technical aspects an issue from institutional dimensions; (iii) underlying correspondence between particular modes policy analysis process itself; (iv) problems proper self-representation analysis, given inevitable conflation informal judgement calculation involved; (v) ambiguous connections pragmatic role practice processes quality control. The IIASA energy study happens good example confusions that require further development already under way. A major point this necessary acceptance craft skill, like conventional science (i.e., not completely specifiable terms its rules inference, logic, etc.), must allowed justify laissez-faire with respect standards such basic matters documentation sensitivity Although ESP suffered these respects over demarcating boundaries it no means unique, shows. [A recent important has come my attention unfortunately too late assimilate discuss here. appears contain striking similarities--even extent independently formulated title--but some significant differences approach own presented here: "The Energy Model Muddle," P. Brett Hammond, Policy Sciences, 16(1984) 227-243.] The overall conclusion if meaningful. change requires corresponding systematic contexts which decision making are conducted. In sense, symptom process, rather than input it.