Societal Learning in Epidemics: Intervention Effectiveness during the 2003 SARS Outbreak in Singapore

摘要: Background Rapid response to outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases is impeded by uncertain diagnoses and delayed communication. Understanding the effect inefficient a potentially important contribution epidemic theory. To develop this understanding we studied societal learning during wherein patient removal accelerates as information gathered disseminated. Methods Findings We developed an extension standard outbreak model, simple stochastic epidemic, which accounts for learning. obtained expressions expected size distribution duration. found that rapid noticeably affects final even when exhibits diminishing returns (relaxation). As example, estimated rate 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Singapore. Evidence relaxation first eight weeks was inconclusive. if had occurred at half actual rate, would have reached nearly 800 cases, more than three times observed number infections. By contrast, twice effective 116 cases. Conclusion These results show can greatly affect disease outbreaks, justifying investment early warning systems attentiveness both government authorities public. submit burden infections, including risk global pandemic, could be efficiently reduced improving procedures detection alerting public health officials, aggressively educating start outbreak.