作者: Jamie T. Griffin , Neil M. Ferguson , Azra C. Ghani
DOI: 10.1038/NCOMMS4136
关键词:
摘要: Estimating the changing burden of malaria disease remains difficult owing to limitations in health reporting systems. Here, we use a transmission model incorporating acquisition and loss immunity capture age-specific patterns at different intensities. The is fitted age-stratified data from 23 sites Africa, then produce maps estimates burden. We estimate that 2010 there were 252 (95% credible interval: 171–353) million cases sub-Saharan Africa active case finding would detect. However, only 34% (12–86%) these be observed through passive detection. proportion all clinical are under-fives varies above 60% high below 20% low transmission. focus some interventions towards young children may need reconsidered, should informed by current local intensity.