Predicting Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity 6–11 Months in Advance

摘要: Abstract A surprisingly strong long-range predictive signal exists for Atlantic-basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity. This skill is related to two measures of West African rainfall in the prior year and phase stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation zonal winds at 30 mb 50 mb, extrapolated ten months into future. These predictors, both which are available by 1 December, can be utilized make skillful forecasts Atlantic activity following June-November season. Using jackknife methods provide independent testing datasets, it found that these parameters used forecast nearly half season-to-season variability seven indices as early late November previous year.