Modelling the impacts of group ranch subdivision on agro-pastoral households in Kajiado, Kenya

摘要: Abstract Pastoral communities in East Africa are facing considerable challenges arising from shifts land tenure policy communal to individual landholdings and high human population growth rates. Over the last 30 years, livestock-to-human ratios have generally declined levels that will no longer support pure pastoralism. Many Maasai thus diversified into cultivation, wage labour, small businesses. Livelihood expectations rising, with concomitant increases need for cash. We describe modification of PHEWS, a simple rule-based model tracks cash flow calories agro-pastoral households. use it, coupled Savanna, sophisticated ecosystem model, quantify some effects subdivision fragmentation on household livestock numbers food security. For group ranches simulated, outputs indicate results substantial reductions numbers, partially because households sell more animals generate needed, serious long-term consequences herd sizes If occurs, even parcels as large 196 km 2 , livelihood strategies may be modified maintain current well-being. Model been discussed community meetings southern Kajiado, but work is needed communication mechanisms utilise effectively imperfect useful integrated assessments complex problems concerning