Beyond species distribution modeling: A landscape genetics approach to investigating range shifts under future climate change

摘要: Understanding how biodiversity will respond to future climate change is a major conservation and societal challenge. Climate predicted force many species shift their ranges in pursuit of suitable conditions. This study aims use landscape genetics, the effects environmental heterogeneity on spatial distribution genetic variation, as predictive tool assess track climatic changes inform measures that facilitate movement. The approach based three steps: 1) using models (SDMs) predict under change, 2) genetics framework identify variables impede or movement, 3) extrapolating effect connectivity range shifts response change. I show this can be implemented publicly available dataset grey long-eared bat, Plecotus austriacus, Iberian Peninsula. Forest cover gradient was main variable affecting between colonies. availability likely limit primarily over central plateau, but important pathways have been identified along eastern western coasts. provide outputs directly used by managers review viability approach. Using combination with SDMs enables identification potential pathways, whose loss affect ability into climatically areas, appropriate management increase