Assessment of climate change impacts on soil water balance and aquifer recharge in a semiarid region in south east Spain

摘要: Summary Climate change forecasts in a semiarid region are of much interest to academics, managers and governments. A significant decrease annual precipitation an increase mean air temperature expected; consequently, changes the soil water balance groundwater recharge aquifers expected as response climate forecasts. In this context, our study aimed assess impact on natural area (Ventos-Castellar aquifer, SE, Spain). To end, we selected Global Model HadCM3 after comparing it with two other models (ECHAM4 CGCM2). The model data (air emission scenarios: A2-high B2-low; 2011–2099) were coupled HYDROBAL hydrological determine balance. results showed that will have area, especially during latter period. both B2-low scenarios, years run components (precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, aquifer runoff) relation baseline period (1961–1990). Over projected (2011–2099), expect fewer rainfall events (>15 mm), which promote recharge, longer dry summer seasons and, reduced average ranged from 3% 17%; 10–49 mm, if compared methodology developed present can be beneficial for assessing predicted help planners devise strategies efficient use conservation freshwater resources.