Predicting Invasions of Woody Plants Introduced into North America

摘要: Plant species continue to be introduced in North America for various purposes. If the trend continues, it is probable that some will escape cultivation and become invasive native ecosystems. We present a retrospective analysis of several structural, life history, biogeographical attributes woody plants determine which traits characterize have not invaded. Predictive models derived from discriminant correctly classified 86.2% cross-validation, whereas those classification regression trees 76% correctly. From these we created hierarchical predictive tree allows user divide into three categories: admit (low risk invasiveness), deny admission (high or delay further analyses and/or monitor intensively (risk cannot adequately assessed based on only included attributes). recommend are highly elsewhere allowed U.S. more conservative introduction policy using method employed. Especies de plantas continuan siendo introducidas Norteamerica para diversos motivos. De continuar la tendencia, es que alguna y se vuelva invasiva en ecosistemas nativos. Presentamos un analisis retrospectivo varios atributos estructurales, biologicos biogeograficos lenosas determinar los rasgos caracteristicos las especies han invadido no invadido. Los modelos predictivos derivados discriminatorio clasificaron correctamente al e validacion cruzada, mientras dendrogramas clasificacion regresion 76%. A partir estos creamos dendrograma predictivo jerarquico permite usuario dividir tres categorias: admitir (bajo riesgo invasividad), negar admision (alto invasividad) o retrasar posterior y/o monitoreo intensivo (el puede evaluarse adecuadamente solo con base incluidos. Recomendamos permita entrada E.U.A. son altamente invasivas otras partes aplique una politica introduccion conservadora basada modelo jerarquico.