Estimates of runoff using water-balance and atmospheric general circulation models

摘要: ABSTRACT: The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). GCMs Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction Analysis (CCC) Hadley Research (HAD). In general, CCC GCM results decreases U.S., HAD produces increases runoff. These estimated changes primarily result precipitation. runoff, however, mostly smaller than decade-to-decade variability GCM-based errors differences simulated between GCMs, together with cause estimates to be uncertain unreliable.