An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus

摘要: The current outbreak of Zika virus poses a threat unknown magnitude to human health. While the range has been cataloged growing slowly over last 50 years, recent explosive expansion in Americas indicates that full potential distribution remains uncertain. Moreover, most epidemiology relies on its similarities dengue fever, phylogenetically closely related disease similarity spatial or ecological niche. Here we compile first spatially explicit global occurrence dataset from viral surveillance and serological surveys, construct niche models test basic hypotheses about spread establishment. hypothesis cases Mexico North America are anomalous outside disease, may be linked El Nino similar climatic events, plausible at this time. Comparison against known fever suggests is more constrained by seasonality precipitation diurnal temperature fluctuations, likely confining tropics pandemic scenarios. Projecting diseases conjunction with vector species (Aedes africanus, Ae. aegypti, albopictus) transmit pathogens, under climate change, for northward expansion; but, based knowledge, unlikely fill vectors occupy. With sexual transmission have occurred United States, caution our results only apply vector-borne aspect while mosquito-carried overstated media, other modes emerge facilitate naturalization worldwide.