A New Model for Evaluation of Interventions to Prevent Obesity in Early Childhood.

摘要: Background: Childhood obesity is a serious public health issue. In Australia, 1 in 4 children already affected by overweight or at the time of school entry. Governments around world have recognized this problem through investment prevention pediatric obesity, yet few interventions early childhood been subjected to economic evaluation. Information on cost-effectiveness vital decisions about program implementation. A challenge evaluating preventive capture long-term costs and outcomes beyond duration an intervention, as benefits will not be realized until some years into future. However, need made present, modeling one way inform such decisions. Objective: To describe conceptual structure new model (the Early Prevention Obesity CHildhood (EPOCH) model) for interventions; validate epidemiologic predictions. Methods Results: We use individual-level (micro-simulation) method BMI trajectories progression from adolescence. The equations predicting individual change underpinning our were derived data population-representative study, Longitudinal Study Australian Children (LSAC). Our approach novel because it account accrued throughout As first step epidemiological predictions model, we used input representing over 250,000 aged 4/5 years, simulated Simulated mean prevalence boys girls verified nationally-representative 14/15 age. Discussion: EPOCH epidemiologically sound its prediction both girls. Future developments include socio-economic position incorporate impacts healthcare costs. help answer: when best intervene childhood; what are most cost-effective approaches which population groups benefit interventions.