Extinction risks of Amazonian plant species

摘要: Estimates of the number, and preferably identity, species that will be threatened by land-use change habitat loss are an invaluable tool for setting conservation priorities. Here, we use collections data ecoregion maps to generate spatially explicit distributions more than 40,000 vascular plant from Amazon basin (representing 80% estimated Amazonian diversity). Using distribution maps, then estimate rates associated extinction probabilities due changes as modeled under 2 disturbance scenarios. We predict 2050, human practices have reduced available ≈12–24%, resulting in 5–9% becoming “committed extinction,” significantly fewer other recent estimates. Contrary previous studies, find primary determinant risk is not size a species' range, but rather its location. The estimates valuable because they indicate only total percentage with also degree which individual habitats affected current future changes.