Spatio-temporal kriging analysis to identify the role of wild boar in the spread of African swine fever in the Russian Federation

摘要: Abstract The current situation of African Swine Fever (ASF) epidemic in continental Europe represents a serious economic risk for the European pig industry. It is well known that both domestic pigs and wild boar are involved ASF spread, but exact mechanism domestic–wildlife interface remains under research. A spatio-temporal kriging analysis was carried out to estimate most possible source infection (domestic or boar) 1,323 notifications reported Russian Federation (RF) from 2013 2017. Results whole period study showed were potential 55% 45% notifications, respectively. stratified by year fluctuation this tendency through time. At early stages Southern regions RF 2007–2008 appears be main infection, while following stage 2009–2012 may more related infection. latter (2013–2017) both, boar, play similar role as disease newly infected areas differences geographical locations can observed matching with epidemiology disease. This paper provides useful information better understanding interactions describes new approach easily applied other animal diseases interface.