Beyond the Mean Field in Host-Pathogen Spatial Ecology

摘要: Spatial extent—the possibility that what happens at point A cannot immediately affect B—is a complicating factor in mathematical biology, as it creates the opportunity for spatial non-uniformity. This non-uniformity must change our understanding of evolutionary dynamics, same organism different places can have expected outcomes. Since origins and fates are both determined locally, we consider heterogeneity explicitly to determine its effects. We use simulations spatially extended host–pathogen predator–prey ecosystems reveal limitations standard treatments heterogeneity. Our model ecosystem generates dynamically; an adaptive network hosts on which pathogens transmitted arises emergent phenomenon. The structure dynamics this differ significant ways from those related models studied adaptive-network field. new technique, swapping, test efficacy simple approximations more elaborate moment-closure methods, measure timescale dependence invasive-strain behavior. results demonstrate failure not only most straightforward (“mean field”) approximation, smooths over entirely, but also correction (“pair approximation”) mean field treatment. In contexts, invasive pathogen varieties prosper initially perish medium term, implying concepts reproductive fitness Evolutionary Stable Strategy be modified such systems.