Projecting southern timber supply for multiple products by subregion

摘要: While timber supply modeling has been of importance in the wood-producing regions United States for decades, it is only more recently that technology and data have allowed disaggregation demand to substate regions, including product specific breakdowns endogenous land use plantation changes. Using southwide an economic framework, Subregional Timber Supply model was used project inventory, removals, price, subregions 12 southern states through 2030. Two hypothetical scenarios were modeled reflect current recessionary impacts potential added bio-energy demands: 1) constant demands based on average 2002 2007 2) a 30-percent recession reduction (2006 2009) rebound by same percentage (2010 2013), followed 0.5 percent per year increase all products. Projections indicate pine pulpwood markets are least volatile under both small sawtimber most volatile. Larger moderate price decreases due recession, which later levels near prices. Hardwood experience decreases, while prices recover partially, they do not return end projection period. Also, growth less timberland loss shifts production harvests coastal plain areas.