Severity Multipliers as a Methodology to Explore Potential Effects of Climate Change on Stream Bioassessment Programs

摘要: Given the scientific consensus that climate change is impacting biodiversity, estimates of future effects on stream communities and assessments potential biases are necessary. Here, we propose a simple technique to approximate changes in invertebrate fish biomonitoring results. Taxa lists for 60 (invertebrate) 52 (fish) sites were each modified by 10 multipliers as stepwise 5% or 10% abundances simulate climate-change severity, reflecting increasing effects. These based zonation preference invertebrates Fish Region Index (FRI) values fish, both longitudinal gradient present river ecosystems. The original taxa analyzed using standard assessment software particular group, followed analysis key metrics. For invertebrates, our simulations affected small good quality streams more often negatively while large poor mountain showed tendency improve. Forty percent data final ecological class when multipliers, with changing often. metric variable, but FRI ratio mostly positive responses, i.e., shift towards downstream communities. results discussed an example facilitates interpretation varying severity. Further, discuss simplified approach implications from induced range shifts.