Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

摘要: Abstract Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns storminess on Atlantic margin Europe forms main objective this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology extratropical cyclones that affect region has been examined for period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have linked cyclone history North in analysis records European coasts. study examines evolution occurrence storms since 1940s also their relationship Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift wind climate, regionally more severe winters calmer summers established. This pattern appears be northward displacement track. An experiment ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) used model effect greenhouse gases induced warming climate coastal region. consists (1), 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO 2 concentrations (2), perturbed corresponding time when radiative forcing doubled terms concentrations. boundary conditions obtained an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation low horizontal resolution. algorithm was developed allow identification individual movements selected zones. For most northern part region, covering Scotland, results describe establishment by ca. 2060 tendency fewer but intense storms. impacts these changes vulnerability coasts are considered. low-lying, exposed ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as Ireland, likely result significant localised increases erosion.