The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany’s most important tree species

摘要: Abstract Due to climate change for many regions an increase in tree mortality is expected. Considering changes risk important management decisions. Therefore, models are needed that predict under future climate. We fitted survival Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Silver Fir (Abies alba Mill.), Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), European beech (Fagus sylvatica sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl.), and pedunculate robur L.) based on the German crown condition survey as well pan-European data from Level I II plots, thus encompassing large environmental gradients. used parametric accelerated failure time assuming Weibull- or log-normal distribution of times. The allow estimate probability dependence age, species mixture. For all species, a decrease with increasing temperatures was found. Decreasing precipitation increased spruce, fir. In addition, positive effect admixture summary, we could fit parsimonious explaining differences times by 30-year averages interpret predisposing factors tree’s vulnerability. However, uncertainty estimations remains high due limitations sampling design methodology.