Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches.

摘要: Predicting past distributions of species climatic niches, hindcasting, by using climate envelope models (CEMs) is emerging as an exciting research area. CEMs are used to examine veiled evolutionary questions about extinctions, locations refugia and migration pathways, or propose hypotheses concerning the population structure in phylogeographical studies. sensitive theoretical assumptions, model classes projections non-analogous climates, among other issues. Studies hindcasting niches often make reference these limitations. However, obtain strong scientific inferences, we must not only be aware potential limitations but also overcome them. Here, I review literature on CEMs. discuss assumptions behind niche modelling, i.e. stability through time equilibrium with climate. summarize a set ‘recommended practices’ improve hindcasting. The studies reviewed: (1) rarely test modelling such climate; (2) they use one class (72% studies) palaeoclimatic reconstruction (62.5%) calibrate their models; (3) do check for occurrence climates (97%); (4) independent data validate (72%). Ignoring inadequate methods may well entail cascade errors naive ecological inferences. We should push integrative lines linking macroecology, physiology, biology, palaeontology, biology better understanding dynamics across space time.