Incorporating phylogeography for modelling the distribution of the carob tree (Ceratonia siliqua, Leguminosae) in future climate change

摘要: Distribution estimates based on niche modeling are commonly used to forecast the impact of future climate change biodiversity. The longer generation time trees implies that adaptive responses stress rely existing genetic diversity. However, effects may have diversity fruit rarely been addressed despite its agronomic importance. carob tree has since ancient times feed humans and livestock across Mediterranean rural landscapes. long-term historical decline estimated for populations (Viruel et al. 2020 in J. Biogeogr.) affected negatively Here we study potential distribution likely consequences current Niche models were constructed MaxEnt with a large set present occurrences (n=758) six selected bioclimatic variables after pilot analyses evaluated using TSS AUC metrics. 2070 by projecting niche-based two scenarios (RCP 4.5 8.5) five general circulation models. Our results suggest currently most suitable areas could decrease 44 % 58 under RCP 8.5 respectively. Some clusters might be more severely impacted. South Morocco which is long term refugia according Viruel (2020 Biogeogr.), also This prediction particularly worrying these contain highest when modelling was conducted respect phylogeography, Maxent supports south (SM) east (EM) as persistent whereas Spain (SS) generally rest western basin (CM). Therefore, our preliminary indicate incorporating phylogeography improve forecasting. In several countries, abandonment traditional orchards forest fragmentation favor intensive agricultural systems urban expansion will worsen this trend. Immediate ex situ conservation actions recommended.