Retreating or Standing: Responses of Forest Species and Steppe Species to Climate Change in Arid Eastern Central Asia

摘要: Background The temperature in arid Eastern Central Asia is projected to increase the future, accompanied by increased variability of precipitation. To investigate impacts climate change on plant species this area, we selected two widespread as candidates, Clematis sibirica and C. songorica, from montane coniferous forest steppe habitats respectively. Methodology/Principal Findings We employed a combined approach molecular phylogeography distribution modelling (SDM) predict future responses these change, utilizing evidence past. Genetic data for shows significant phylogeographical signal (NST > FST, P<0.05) demographic contraction during glacial-interglacial cycles Pleistocene. This would likely experience range reduction, though without genetic loss, face change. In contrast, SDMs that species, should maintain consistently stable potential under Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climatic conditions referring its existing distribution. Molecular results indicate presence rejected contains high level differentiation among populations cpDNA, benefiting over lengthy time period. Conclusions/Significance Evidence more sensitive past changes than species. will challenge provides perspective ecological management Asia, indicating attention be paid due their sensitivity disturbance.