An exploration of the role of asymptomatic infections in the epidemiology of dengue viruses through susceptible, asymptomatic, infected and recovered (SAIR) models.

摘要: It is estimated that 20-97% of all dengue infections could be asymptomatic. I used SIR models to investigate the epidemiological role such infections, by adding an asymptomatic class (SAIR models). Upon infection in one models, a human becomes either symptomatic or In other, and may progress being symptomatic. The robustness results from these examined incorporating mosquito-vector into followed simulating epidemic dynamics stochastically. Results first two were very similar, with epidemics typically lasting less than year. When mosquitoes explicitly modelled high-transmission setting, if level duration infectivity was high relative would become endemic. Under stochastic simulation this effect leading persisting no longer guaranteed. Longer durations had higher chance causing dengue's persistence simulation, indicating more key determinant for 10 years infections. Otherwise, similar effects on R0 other measures. With outbreaks often led larger proportion population immune suggested monitoring This at risk developing severe subsequent outbreak different serotype, have determined via expansion factors.