Behavioral Economic Purchase Tasks to Estimate Demand for Novel Nicotine/tobacco Products and Prospectively Predict Future Use: Evidence From The Netherlands.

摘要: INTRODUCTION: The demand for alternative nicotine/tobacco products is not well established. This paper uses a behavioral economic approach to test whether smokers have differential conventional factory-made, electronic, and very low nicotine content cigarettes (FMCs/ECs/VLNCs) the prospective cohort design predictive validity of indices on subsequent use commercially available FMCs ECs. METHODS: Daily (≥16 years) from Netherlands completed an online survey in April 2014 (N = 1215). Purchase tasks were FMCs, ECs, VLNCs. Participants indicated number they would consume 24 h, across range prices (0-30 euro). relationship between consumption price was quantified into four (intensity, Pmax, breakpoint, essential value). A follow-up July 2015 measured FMC EC use. RESULTS: At baseline, greater observed relative ECs VLNCs all indices, with no difference follow-up, baseline value) associated lower quit rates higher relapse. (Pmax, positively any waves, past 30 day use, purchase waves. CONCLUSIONS: Smokers valued more than or VLNCs, less sensitive increases. Demand predicted over 15 month period. To serve as viable substitutes will need be priced FMCs. IMPLICATIONS: can adapted novel means efficiently quantify predict Among current daily smokers,