Volcanic Activity: Frontiers and Challenges in Forecasting, Prediction and Risk Assessment

摘要: When a volcano shows signs of unrest scientists are asked to forecast whether an eruption will happen, when it happen and what kind be. They also expected provide information on hazardous volcanic phenomena their effects, how long the last. Eruptions complex phenomena, however, involving magma ascent Earth's surface interactions with surrounding crust environments during eruption. Magma may change its properties profoundly eruption, many governing processes heat mass transfer can be highly non-linear. There both epistemic aleatory uncertainties involved, which large, making precise prediction certain event in time space formidable or impossible objective; that is, volcanoes intrinsically unpredictable. As other natural forecasting is more achievable goal needs expressed probabilistic terms take account uncertainties. Ensemble modeling sampled Monte Carlo techniques likely become basis for such forecasting. Despite limitations, there significant progress anticipating activity and, favorable circumstances, predictions. Data from enhanced monitoring being combined advanced numerical models flows environment. Statistical analysis volcanological data improvements methods treat subjective beginning viable, complementary approaches basic modeling.