A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research: Introductory Essay
作者： Nebojsa Nakicenovic , Robert J. Lempert , Anthony C. Janetos
DOI: 10.1007/S10584-013-0982-2
关键词:
摘要: Historically, scenarios have served multiple uses for climate-related research and decisionmaking. Scenarios provide an essential scientific method exploring possible future climatse change its impacts. They also help inform consideration of decisions regarding mitigation adaptation. Over the last several decades, climate community has produced two widely-used sets scenarios. The development a new scenario set is now underway. This volume reports on novel central component this effort – shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Emissions scenarios, precursor today’s SSPs, described emissions greenhouse gases (GHGs) other short-lived long-lived forcings physical system. Such evolved substantially over time, driven in large part by improvements integrated assessment models (IAMs) used to create them. Whereas earliest assessments, such as first IPCC (IPCC 1990), Climatic Change (2014) 122:351–361 DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0982-2
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