The uncertain blitzkrieg of Pleistocene megafauna

摘要: We investigated, using meta-analysis of empirical data and population modelling, plausible scenarios for the cause late Pleistocene global mammal extinctions. also considered rate at which these extinctions may have occurred, providing a test so-called ‘blitzkrieg’ hypothesis, postulates rapid, anthropogenically driven, extinction event. The foundation this work was comprehensive base estimated body masses mammals, comprising 198 extinct 433 surviving species > 5 kg, we compiled through an extensive literature search. used mechanistic modelling to simulate role human hunting efficiency, meat off-take, relative naivety prey invading humans, variation in reproductive fitness deterioration habitat quality (due either anthropogenic landscape burning or climate change), explored capacity different recover observed relationship between mass proneness. For best-fitting scenarios, calculated event would occurred. All based on sampling randomly from range parameters (and their interactions), affect animal demographics. Our analyses revealed that risk increases continuously small- large-sized animals, with no clear ‘megafaunal’ threshold. A logistic ancova model incorporating geography (continent) explains 92% Population demonstrates there were many capable reproducing mass–extinction relationship, such as specific targeting large animals by various combinations change opportunistic hunting. Yet, given current imperfect knowledge base, it is equally impossible use isolate definitively any single scenario explain However, one universal prediction, applied all distribution correctly predicted, be rapid following arrival fauna suppressed below pre-‘blitzkrieg’ densities. In sum, colonization almost certainly triggered ‘megafauna’, but operational details remain elusive.