An individual-based model for southern Lake Superior wolves: A tool to explore the effect of human-caused mortality on a landscape of risk

摘要: Abstract Gray wolves (Canis lupus) have complex life-histories due, in part, to mating systems that depend on intra-group dominance hierarchies set within an inter-group (pack) social structure linked philopatric territories. In addition this spatially oriented structure, mortality risk associated with interactions humans varies spatially. We developed individual-based explicit (IBSE) model for the southern Lake Superior wolf population better capture life-history of a harvest model. Simulated underwent annual cycle stage-dependent mate-finding, dispersal, reproduction, and aging simulated landscape reflecting state water boundaries, Indian reservation boundaries ceded territories, zones, livestock depredation areas, spatial surface. The latter 3 surfaces were events wolves. assessed our IBSE conducted sensitivity analysis most uncertain parameters categorical calibration patterns observed at individual, pack, population, level. found without recreational harvest, Wisconsin grew average carrying capacity 1242 after 50 years breeding pairs persisted mean 1.8 years. 6 scenarios varying rates timings effects size, pack sizes, age ratios, dispersal immigration rates, pair tenures population. 14% which corresponded 2012 reduced populations 4% first year equilibrated pre-harvest size 20 average. A 30% rate across simulation by 65% some going extinct before 100 general, increased proportion pups decreased tenure. Targeted lethal control was more effective than reducing number near known sites. Our facilitates prediction important is simultaneously dependent complexities structured life history mortality.