Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

摘要: Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well other constituents, such aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result air pollutants. Non-Kyoto constituents contribute negative, positive forcing, overall increases in total global average temperature. modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes assesses current non-Kyoto within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % the near-term reference non-climate policy projections. However, projected to decline rapidly 5–10 by 2100 with increasing emissions assumed reductions pollution—with later declining much 50 80 below today’s levels 2050 respectively. Together they imply importance over time. There are however significant uncertainties large differences across models forcing. A look into reveals base conditions, relationships between emissions, pollution control assumptions, fundamental modeling. In addition, under scenarios, we find resulting reduced those produced alone—e.g., China sulfur fall an additional 45–85 2050. None actively manage for implications. Nonetheless, may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide further evaluation merited.