Estimating survival in the Apennine brown bear accounting for uncertainty in age classification

摘要: For most rare and elusive species, estimating age-specific survival is a challenging task, although it an important requirement to understand the drivers of population dynamics, inform conservation actions. Apennine brown bears Ursus arctos marsicanus are small, isolated under severe risk extinction, for which main demographic mechanisms underlying dynamics still unknown, trends have not been formally assessed. We present 12-year analysis their rates using non-invasive genetic sampling data collected through four different techniques. By multi-event capture–recapture models, we estimated probabilities two broadly defined age classes (cubs older individuals), even though majority sampled was unknown. also applied Pradel model provide preliminary assessment trend during study period. Survival between cubs [ϕ = 0.51, 95% CI (0.22, 0.79)], adult males [ϕ = 0.85, (0.76, 0.91)] females [ϕ = 0.92, (0.87, 0.95)], no temporal variation in emerged, suggesting that bear remained substantially stable throughout The yielded estimate λ = 1.009 [SE = 0.018; (0.974, 1.046)]. Our results indicate that, despite status full legal protection, basically demography this relict compatible with observed lack range expansion, relatively high cub mortality could be among factors depressing recruitment hence growth.