Changes in European summer temperature variability revisited

摘要: [1] Summer temperature variability has been projected to increase in Central Europe response anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. Based on an unprecedented set of global and regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project, we assess robustness these projections interannual daily time scales. In comparison previous analyses using PRUDENCE simulations, find a more diverse change signal for summer clear dependence upon present-day model performance. Models that realistically represent variability, tend consistently project increasing at end 21st century. We demonstrate partitioning latent sensible heat fluxes controlled by soil moisture is crucial understand changes across multi-model experiment. The robust simulated all models. Likewise, reduced winter. Thus, it entire ensemble south-central hot extremes warm stronger than mean, winter northern cold mean temperatures.