Fertility and reproductive preferences in post-transitional societies

摘要: THE TIMING OF the onset of contemporary fertility transitions and pace change during their early phases have been central concerns researchers policymakers in recent decades. Demographers social scientists studied survey data with detailed information about reproductive behaviors attitudes individuals many countries. This research has provided new insights into determinants behavior contributed to development increasingly refined realistic theories change. Policymakers program managers developing world concerned contribution high rapid population growth poor health, they focused on implementing effective programs-in practice, mostly family planning programs-to reduce unwanted fertility. Until recently, less attention had given consequences post-transitional societies. Conventional demographic little say level at which will stabilize end transition. However, it is usually assumed that long run be near zero, implies average close replacement 2.1 births per woman (Demeny 1997; Caldwell 1982; Freedman Berelson 1974). assumption is, for example, incorporated past projections United Nations World Bank (medium variants). If societies indeed leveled off or level, there would limited interest subject because this expected. dropped below level-sometimes by a substantial margin-in virtually every moved through future remains these low levels, populations decline size age rapidly. These developments