Risk-based environmental remediation: Assessing the value of uncertainty using Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis

摘要: A methodology that simulates outcomes from future data collection programs, utilizes Bayesian Monte Carlo analysis to predict the resulting reduction in uncertainty, and estimates expected value of this a risk based environmental remediation decision is illustrated considering polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) sediment contamination uptake by winter flounder New Bedford Harbor, MA. The including uncertainty (EVIU), difference between loss nominal optimal on analysis, calculated. In addition, sample information (EVSI), an updated state, calculated for several sampling plans. For illustrative application authors have posed, EVSI plan two points $9.4 million, five $10.4 ten $11.5 million. plans involving larger numbers bounded perfect information, $15.6 sensitivity conducted examine effect selected modelmore » structure parametric assumptions EVSI. most sensitive unit cost rather insensitive penalty associated with under-remediation.« less