A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change

摘要: Predicting the influence of climate change on potential distribution naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation management actions for plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate future changes in to species. Here, we develop Australia-wide screening tool assess establish spread both conditions. The developed uses five spatially explicit criteria likelihood population establishment expansion baseline climates decades 2035 2065. Alien are then given a threat rating according enable natural resource managers focus those that pose largest now future. To demonstrate tool, present results representative sample approximately 10% (n = 292) Australia's known, Overall, most showed decreases area habitat suitability compared therefore declined between Use intended assist assessing thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments greatest threat. associated with searchable database all 292 across range spatial scales, available through interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/.