Uncertainty and the de Finetti tables

摘要: The new paradigm in the psychology of reasoning adopts a Bayesian, or prob-abilistic, model for studying human reasoning. Contrary to traditional binary approach based on truth functional logic, with its values and falsity, third value that represents uncertainty can be introduced paradigm. A variety three-valued table systems are available formal literature, including one proposed by de Finetti. We examine descriptive adequacy these natural language indicative condi-tionals bets conditionals. Within our framework so-called " defective table, which participants choose when antecedent conditional is false, becomes coherent response. show only Finetti's system has good fit value. probabilistic, (Oaksford & Chater, 2007, 2009; Over, Pfeifer Kleiter, 2010) implies close parallel relationship between assertions language, if then C, other uses conditionals, particularly I bet B. Politzer, Baratgin (2010) explain how this predicted relation goes back Ramsey (1926/1990, 1929/1990) Finetti (1936/1995, 1937/1964) provide experimental evidence exists (see also Baratgin, press). Financial support work was provided French ANR agency under grant Chorus 2011 (project BTAFDOC). would like thank Paul Egr e, Jean-Louis Stilgenbauer, Tatsuji Takahashi much discussion help research. Shira Elqayam, Jean-Francois Bonnefon, two anonymous reviewers.