The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways

摘要: Abstract This paper explores the implications of delays (to 2030) in implementing optimal policies for long-term transition pathways to limit climate forcing 450 ppm CO2e on basis AMPERE Work Package 2 model comparison study. The highlights critical importance period 2030–2050 ambitious mitigation strategies. In this period, most rapid shift low greenhouse gas emitting technology occurs. delayed response emission scenarios, an even faster rate is required compensate additional emissions before 2030. Our physical deployment measures indicate that availability CCS could play a role facilitating attainment goals. Without CCS, other technologies would become extremely high period. Yet presence greatly alleviates challenges particularly after policies, lowering risk goal becomes unattainable. results also highlight important bioenergy with CO2 capture and storage (BECCS), which facilitates energy production negative carbon emissions. If BECCS available, exceed budget mid-term, removing excess long term. Excluding either BE or from portfolio implies reductions need take place much earlier.