El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: The Documented Historical Record of El Niño Events in Peru: An Update of the Quinn Record (Sixteenth through Nineteenth Centuries)

摘要: Abstract The aclassical chronology of El Nino events for the past four and a half centuries proposed by Quinn et al. (1987) was primarily based upon indications anomalous meteorological hydrological phenomena observed in Peru neighboring areas, as described various authors anonymous sources. This sequence reconstructed events, later improved modified (1992, 1993; Neal 1992), became major reference proxy calibrations most studies on climate variability related to Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during historical, pre-instrumental, times. Precisely because global regional records interannual are becoming more diversified accurate, there is an urgent need reevaluate consolidate documentary record manifestations, particularly southwestern South America, key area ENSO studies. A preliminary revision some sources used elaborate their (Hocquenghem Ortlieb 1992b) showed that were actually poorly documented simply may not have occurred. For instance, had been exclusively from evidence Rimac River floods at Lima, while no clear relationship has established between these manifestations. Another question concerns significance rains southern Peru: Do they correspond situations, inferred al., or rather conditions associated with opposite phase Southern (La Nina)? Furthermore, previous analysis rainfall excess central Chile sixteenth through nineteenth (Ortlieb 1994) revealed many discrepancies respect Quinn.