Point estimate method for probabilistic load flow of an unbalanced power distribution system with correlated wind and solar sources

摘要: Abstract Context: The electric parameters of the power networks are usually analysed through deterministic flows; however, variation in load demands and fluctuation renewable generators cannot be considered with flows because it uses specific values. probabilistic flow methods better for this purpose since they apply techniques to include reflect uncertainty input variables on results obtained. Objective: This paper extends Point Estimate Method (PEM) applied an unbalanced distribution system dispersed generation variable factors. method is uncertainties loads sources such as wind solar. As PEM requires independent random variables, but there spatial correlation between or sources; therefore, Cholesky decomposition deal situation. Method: In combined scheme 2m+1 some approximation methodologies estimate cumulative function electrical parameters. Results: obtained moments about mean output which used conjunction obtain estimation Cumulative Distribution Function nodes branch proposed methodology tested three-phase IEEE 123-node test system, compared those from benchmark Monte Carlo simulation. Conclusions: There comments pertinent information performance kind systems.