Epidemic simulation of a foot and mouth disease outbreak in Minnesota.

摘要: Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a primary transboundary livestock of international concern. Outbreaks the have recently occurred in several countries that were previously FMD-free. For with limited direct experience this disease, modelling useful tool for study potential outbreak. The objectives to determine specific FMD risk parameters Minnesota United States (USA) use these create baseline outbreak model Minnesota. Of interest was assess whether type herd which began (a dairy or large-scale swine herd) influenced basic outcomes size duration, examine effects depopulation movement controls. mean values duration number farms animals infected larger scenario index herd. results two models demonstrated entire spectrum types; is, from limited, focal outbreaks widespread, uncontrolled outbreaks. findings provide details emergency preparedness planners can evaluate response strategies incursion into USA. These are also value all as veterinary authorities develop adjust their plans.