Quantile Dependence in Tourism Demand Time Series: Evidence in the Southern Italy Market

摘要: Travel and tourism is an important economic activity in most countries around the world. In 2018, international tourist arrivals grew 5% to reach 1.4 billion mark at same time export earnings generated by have grown USD 1.7 trillion. The rapid growth of industry has globally attracted interest researchers for a long time. literature tried model demand analyze effects different factors predict future behavior demand. Forecasting crucial not only academia but industries too, especially line with principles sustainable tourism. hospitality branch part accurate passenger flow forecasting key link governance resources destination or revenue management systems. this context, paper studies interdependence one main Italian destinations, Campania region, using quantile-on-quantile approach between overall specific Data are represented monthly nights spent residents non-residents hotels complementary accommodations from January 2008 December 2018. results analysis show that hotel-accommodation component appears be more vulnerable than extra-hotel accommodation fluctuations feature evident spent. Moreover, dependence on high quantiles suggests strategy diversification market segmentation avoid overtourism phenomena and/or carrying capacity problems. Conversely, low use push strategies stimulate Finally, suggest it could very useful if stakeholders sector focused their attention collaboration theory.