Years to weeks of seismic unrest and magmatic intrusions precede monogenetic eruptions

摘要: Seismic, deformation, and gas activity (unrest) typically precedes volcanic eruptions. Tracking the changes of this with monitoring data makes it increasingly possible to successfully forecast eruptions from stratovolcanoes. However, is not case for monogenetic volcanoes. Eruptions these volcanoes tend be small but are particularly difficult anticipate since they occur at unexpected locations there very limited instrumental data. Many fields in high-density, populated areas and/or tourist destinations, thus even a eruption can have major economic societal impact. We gathered available unrest combined new historical accounts seismicity. Our occurrences mainly high magmatic flux oceanic islands (Canary Islands, Iceland, Papua New Guinea, Mexico, Japan). find that seismic may start one or two years before eruption, intensifies approximately three months, weeks. The petrological geochemical characteristics deposits show multiple magma batches interacted subvolcanic reservoir, intrusions occurred on similar time scales propose general model where early dike crust do erupt (e.g., stalled intrusions) make plumbing systems, probably key creating thermal rheological pathway later dikes able reach surface. These observations provide conceptual framework better anticipating settings fluxes should lead improved strategies mitigation their associated hazards risks.