Climate‐driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits

摘要: Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution orchard species (apples, pears, plums other top fruits) their pollinators in Great Britain, for present future climatic conditions projected 2050 under SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. used relative index pollinator availability as proxy service. At present, there is large spatial overlap orchards but predictions revealed that most suitable corresponded low availability. However, we found may persist currently fruit production, which are predicted provide suboptimal environmental suitability future. Our results be mitigation options safeguard production against risk failure Britain over next 50 years; instance, choosing tree varieties adapted conditions, or boosting wild through improving landscape resources. approach readily applied regions systems, expanded include different scenarios.