What’s on the Human Mind? : Decision Theory and Deterrence

摘要: Indeed, deterrence, as Freedman and Mazarr recount in this volume respectively Chaps. 1 2, aims to dissuade an opponent from taking undesirable actions. Clear communication of demands (a red line for instance), coupled with a credible threat inflict pain if necessary, demonstration resolve are some obvious essential elements creating effective deterrence. Success crucially also depends on whether the receives intended signal, interprets it intended, has perception that message is congruent reality, i.e., can make good her threats. furthermore assumes communicated acceptable. If those prerequisites exist, theory suggests rational actor will back down, after weighing benefits envisioned actions versus potential costs may result when executed. This chapter offers synthesis insights have appeared since 1980s fundamentally challenge assumption rationality. contribution about workings human mind concerns various filters cognitive shortcuts colour incoming stream information processes digest come decision.