Land and the food–fuel competition: insights from modeling

摘要: Ecological-economic model simulations of the world food system have been used to study impacts historic and future liquid transport biofuel expansion on agricultural markets environment. Almost half global cropland increase between 2000 2008 (about 8 Mha or 0.5% cropland) can be attributed alone. The central "New Policies Scenario" World Energy Outlook 2011 projects an conventional crop-based use from 60 Mtoe (2.5 EJ) in 2010 annually 160 (6.7 2035. Until 2020, projected consumption provides no little cumulative net greenhouse gas (GHG) savings as time period is hardly sufficient compensate for carbon losses due over 10 additional land conversion. By 2035, GHG improve up 2.8 Pg CO2 equivalent a scenario with assumed higher productivity growth developing countries. This increases region's competitive positions avoids people at risk hunger commodity prices caused by use. Available underutilized grassland woodland may provide resources suitable nonfood energy crop production required second-generation conversion pathways, while causing only limited security biodiversity. We estimate 246 475 agronomically industrial-scale lignocellulosic production, achievable rain-fed yields least tons dry matter per hectare, good accessibility relatively low ruminant livestock density.